Newtown Shooter's DNA to Be Studied

Geneticists have been asked to study the DNA of Adam Lanza, the Connecticut man whose shooting rampage killed 27 people, including an entire first grade class.

The study, which experts believe may be the first of its kind, is expected to be looking for abnormalities or mutations in Lanza's DNA.

Connecticut Medical Examiner H. Wayne Carver has reached out to University of Connecticut's geneticists to conduct the study.

University of Connecticut spokesperson Tom Green says Carver "has asked for help from our department of genetics" and they are "willing to give any assistance they can."

Green said he could not provide details on the project, but said it has not begun and they are "standing by waiting to assist in any way we can."

Lanza, 20, carried out the massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn., just days before Christmas. His motives for the slaughter remain a mystery.

Geneticists not directly involved in the study said they are likely looking at Lanza's DNA to detect a mutation or abnormality that could increase the risk of aggressive or violent behavior. They could analyze Lanza's entire genome in great detail and try to find unexpected mutations.

This seems to be the first time a study of this nature has been conducted, but it raises concerns in some geneticists and others in the field that there could be a stigma attached to people with these genetic characteristics if they are able to be narrowed down.

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Arthur Beaudet, a professor at Baylor College of Medicine, said the University of Connecticut geneticists are most likely trying to "detect clear abnormalities of what we would call a mutation in a gene…or gene abnormalities and there are some abnormalities that are related to aggressive behavior."

"They might look for mutations that might be associated with mental illnesses and ones that might also increase the risk for violence," said Beaudet, who is also the chairman of Baylor College of Medicine's department of molecular and human genetics.

Beaudet believes geneticists should be doing this type of research because there are "some mutations that are known to be associated with at least aggressive behavior if not violent behavior."

"I don't think any one of these mutations would explain all of (the mass shooters), but some of them would have mutations that might be causing both schizophrenia and related schizophrenia violent behavior," Beaudet said. "I think we could learn more about it and we should learn more about it."

Beaudet noted that studying the genes of murderers is controversial because there is a risk that those with similar genetic characteristics could possibly be discriminated against or stigmatized, but he still thinks the research would be helpful even if only a "fraction" may have the abnormality or mutation.

"Not all of these people will have identifiable genetic abnormalities," Beaudet said, adding that even if a genetic abnormality is found it may not be related to a "specific risk."

"By studying genetic abnormalities we can learn more about conditions better and who is at risk and what might be dramatic treatments," Beaudet said, adding if the gene abnormality is defined the "treatment to stop" other mass shootings or "decrease the risk is much approved."

Others in the field aren't so sure.

Dr. Harold Bursztajn, a professor of psychiatry at Harvard Medical School, is a leader in his field on this issue writing extensively on genetic discrimination. He questions what the University of Connecticut researchers could "even be looking for at this point."

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Peace envoy Brahimi, Syria diplomats in Moscow talks

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia will host Syria peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi this week after Syrian officials held talks in Moscow on Thursday as part of a diplomatic drive to try to agree a plan to end the 21-month-old conflict, Russia's foreign ministry said.

Talks have moved to Moscow, a long-time Syria ally, after a flurry of meetings Brahimi held in Damascus this week, but the international envoy has disclosed little about his negotiations.

Brahimi, who saw Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Monday and is planning to hold a series of meetings with Syrian officials and dissidents this week, is trying to broker a peaceful transfer of power.

More than 44,000 Syrians have been killed in a revolt against four decades of Assad family rule, a conflict that began with peaceful protests in March last year, but which has descended into civil war.

Past peace efforts have floundered, with world powers divided over what has become an increasingly sectarian struggle between mostly Sunni Muslim rebels and Assad's security forces, drawn primarily from his Shi'ite-rooted Alawite minority.

Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Makdad and an aide held talks for less than two hours on Thursday with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Mikhail Bogdanov, the Kremlin's envoy for Middle East affairs, but declined to disclose details of their visit.

Syrian and Lebanese sources said Makdad had been sent to Moscow to discuss the details of a peace plan proposed by Brahimi.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich played down the idea that a specific new proposal was on the table in Moscow talks, at least one agreed by Moscow and Washington.

Asked about rumors of a Russian-American plan to resolve the conflict, he said: "There has not been and is no such plan."

'TRYING TO FEEL A WAY OUT'

"In our talks with Mr. Brahimi and with our American colleagues, we are trying to feel a way out of this situation on the basis of our common plan of action that was agreed in Geneva in June," Lukashevich told reporters at a weekly briefing.

Setting the scene for a planned Russian meeting with Brahimi on Saturday, he said, "We plan to discuss a range of issues linked to a political and diplomatic settlement in Syria, including Brahimi's efforts aimed at ending the violence and the launch of a comprehensive national dialogue."

World powers believe Russia, which has given Assad military and diplomatic aid to help him weather the uprising, has the ear of Syria's government and must be a key player in peace talks.

Moscow has tried to distance itself from Assad in recent months and has said it is not propping him up, but Lukashevich reiterated its stance that Assad's exit from power could not be a precondition for negotiations.

Setting such a condition, he said, would violate the terms of an agreement reached by world powers in Geneva on June 30 that called for a transitional government in Syria.

Lukashevich said Russia continued to believe there was "no alternative" to the Geneva Declaration and repeated accusations that the United States has reneged on it.

"Our American colleagues and some others ... have turned sharply from this position, by 180 degrees, supporting the opposition and conducting no dialogue with the government - putting the opposition in the mood for no dialogue with the authorities but for overthrowing the authorities," he said.

"The biggest disagreement ... is that one side thinks Assad should leave at the start of the process - that is the U.S. position, and the other thinks his departure should be a result of the process - that would be the Russian position," Dmitry Trenin, an analyst at the Moscow Carnegie Center, told Reuters.

But Trenin said battlefield gains made by the Syrian rebels were narrowing the gap between Moscow and Washington.

On Saturday, Lavrov said that neither side would win Syria's civil war and that Assad would not quit even if Russia or China told him to. Bogdanov had earlier acknowledged that Syrian rebels might win.

Lavrov has said this month that Russia had no intention of offering Assad asylum and would not act as messenger for other nations seeking his exit.

(Additional reporting by Nastassia Astrasheuskaya; Writing by Alissa de Carbonnel; Editing by Andrew Osborn)

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Second Morsi minister resigns in Egypt

CAIRO: Egypt's legal and parliamentary affairs minister announced his resignation on Thursday, the day after President Mohamed Morsi vowed a government reshuffle to tackle the country's troubled economy.

Mohammed Mahsoub said he was stepping down because "many policies and efforts contradict my personal convictions," according to his letter published on the Facebook page belonging to a leader of his moderate Islamist Wasat party.

He also criticised the government's failure to recover funds allegedly embezzled by members of ousted leader Hosni Mubarak's regime.

His resignation came two days after that of Morsi's communications minister, Hany Mahmud, who blamed "the current situation in the country".

Mahsoub, Wasat's deputy head, had backed Morsi against the secular-leaning opposition through a deep political crisis over a new constitution that became law this week.

Weeks of protests and violent clashes preceded the referendum this month on the constitution, which was drafted by an Islamist-dominated panel boycotted by Christians and liberals.

In a speech on Wednesday, Morsi hailed the constitution and said he was mulling ministerial changes.

"I will deploy all my efforts to boost the Egyptian economy... and I will make all the changes necessary for this task," Morsi said.

- AFP/xq

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Modi gets rousing welcome at BJP office

NEW DELHI, Amid rousing chants of "PM, PM" by his supporters, Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi on Thursday thanked the BJP for its support and said the development work done by his government was responsible for its hat-trick win in the assembly polls.

Addressing a felicitation event at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters here, Modi said: "For 12 years, my government has done work... The people of Gujarat have voted in favour of the good work done by my party in the state."

His supporters kept up a chant of "PM, PM" - voicing their demand that Modi be named the BJP's prime ministerial candidate for the 2014 general elections.

It was a carnival-like atmosphere at the event with supporters dancing to drum beats and bursting firecrackers.

Praising the BJP, Modi said it was possible for an ordinary party worker like him to become a chief minister of a state.

"It was possible for me - a simple worker - to rise to where I'm today," he said.

Taking on the Congress-led union government, Modi said despite 65 per cent of the country's population under the age of 35, the government did not have a "plan or political will" to utilise youth power in nation building.

He said it was the hard work and performance of only some states that was driving the country's growth.

"While the government is struggling to achieve a growth rate of 8 percent, Gujarat's growth rate is above 11 per cent," he said.

Earlier, BJP chief Nitin Gadkari praised Modi for the "tohfa" (gift) he had got in the form of the party scoring a massive win in Gujarat polls.

"Gujarat is an example before the nation," he said.

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

___

Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Storms Spawn 34 Tornado Reports Across South

Severe Christmas day weather tore across the deep South, spinning off 34 possible tornadoes and killing at least three people in its path, while extreme weather is forecast throughout today for parts of the East Coast.

The storm first pounded Texas, then touched down in Louisiana and blasted through homes in Mississippi. In Mobile, Ala., a wide funnel cloud was barreled across the city as lightning flashed inside like giant Christmas ornaments.

Bill Bunting with the National Weather Service's Severe Storms Prediction Center said that the damage may not yet be done.

"Conditions don't look quite as volatile over a large area as we saw on Christmas day but there will be a risk of tornadoes, some of them could be rather strong, across eastern portions of North Carolina and the northeastern part of South Carolina," he said.

Across the Gulf region, from Texas to Florida, over 280,000 customers are still without power, with 100,000 without power in Little Rock, Ark. alone.

The punishing winds mangled Mobile's graceful ante-bellum homes, and today, dazed residents are picking through debris while rescue crews search for people trapped in the rubble.

"We've got a lot of damage, we've got people hurt," one Mobile resident told ABC News. "We've had homes that are 90 percent destroyed."

Melinda Martinez/The Daily Town Talk/AP Photo

In the Houston area a tree fell onto a pickup truck, killing the driver, ABC affiliate WTRK reported. In Louisiana, a 53-year-old man died when a tree fell on his house, and a 28-year-old woman was killed in a crash on a snowy highway near Fairview, Okla., according to the Associated Press.

At least eight states issued blizzard warnings Tuesday, as the storms made highways dangerously slick heading into one of the busiest travel days of the year.

Tuesday's extreme weather caused an 8-foot deep sinkhole in Vicksburg, Miss. Alma Jackson told ABC News that a concrete tank that was in her backyard fell into the sinkhole.

"It's really very disturbing," she said. "Because it's on Christmas day, and then to see this big hole in the ground and not have any explanation, and not be able to cover it. And the rain is pouring down."

Teresa Mason told ABC News that she and her boyfriend panicked when they saw the tornado heading toward them in Stone County, in southern Mississippi, but she says they were actually saved when a tree fell onto the truck.

"[We] got in the truck and made it out there to the road. And that's when the tornado was over us. And it started jerking us and spinning us, "she said."This tree got us in the truck and kept us from being sucked up into the tornado."

The last time a number of tornadoes hit the Gulf Coast area around Christmas Day was in 2009, when 22 tornadoes struck on Christmas Eve morning, National Weather Service spokesman Chris Vaccaro told ABC News in an email.

The deadliest Christmastime tornado outbreak on record was Dec. 24 to 26, 1982, when 29 tornadoes in Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee and Mississippi killed three people and injured 32.

The last killer tornado around Christmas, Vaccaro said, was a Christmas Eve EF4 in Tennessee in 1988, which killed one person and injured seven. EF4 tornadoes can produce winds up to 200 mph.

ABC News' Matt Gutman, Max Golembo and ABC News Radio contributed to this report.

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Syria to discuss Brahimi proposals with Russia

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrian President Bashar al-Assad dispatched a senior diplomat to Moscow on Wednesday to discuss proposals made by envoy Lakhdar Brahimi to end the conflict convulsing his country, Syrian and Lebanese sources said.

Brahimi, who met Assad on Monday as part of a series of planned talks with Syrian officials and dissidents in Damascus this week, is trying to arrange a peaceful transfer of power, but has disclosed little about how this might be achieved.

More than 44,000 Syrians have died in the revolt against four decades of Assad family rule, a conflict that began with peaceful protests but which has descended into civil war.

Past peace efforts have floundered, with world powers divided over what has become an increasingly sectarian struggle between mostly Sunni Muslim rebels and Assad's security forces, drawn primarily from his Shi'ite-rooted Alawite minority.

Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Makdad flew to Moscow to discuss the details of the talks with Brahimi, said a Syrian security source, who would not say if a deal was in the works.

However, a Lebanese official close to Damascus said Makdad had been sent to seek Russian advice on a possible agreement.

He said Syrian officials were upbeat after talks with Brahimi, the U.N.-Arab League envoy, who met Foreign Minister Walid Moualem on Tuesday a day after his session with Assad, but who has not outlined his ideas in public.

"There is a new mood now and something good is happening," the official said, asking not to be named. He gave no details.

Russia, which has given Assad diplomatic and military aid in the 21-month-old uprising, has said it is not protecting him, but has fiercely criticized any foreign backing for rebels and, with China, has blocked U.N. Security Council action on Syria.

On Saturday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Syria's civil war had reached stalemate and international efforts to persuade Assad to quit would fail.

Assad's opponents insist the Syrian president must go, given the scale of bloodshed and destruction they blame on him.

Moaz Alkhatib, head of the internationally recognized Syrian National Coalition opposition, has criticized any notion of a transitional government in which Assad would stay on as a figurehead president stripped of any real powers.

SHELLING KILLS 20

The comments on Alkhatib's Facebook page on Monday suggested that the opposition believed this was among Brahimi's ideas.

"We have told every official we have met: the government and its president cannot stay on in power, with or without their powers. This is unacceptable to Syrians," Alkhatib wrote.

"The coalition leadership has told Lakhdar Brahimi directly that this type of solution is rejected."

While Brahimi was striving to bridge the vast gaps between Assad and his foes, fighting raged on across the country and a senior Syrian military officer defected to the rebels.

Syrian army shelling killed about 20 people, at least eight of them children, in the northern province of Raqqa, a video posted by opposition campaigners showed.

The video published by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights showed rows of blood-stained bodies laid out on blankets. The sound of crying relatives could be heard in the background.

The shelling hit the province's al-Qahtania village, but it was unclear when the attack had occurred.

Rebels re-launched their assault on the Wadi Deif military base in the northwestern province of Idlib, in a critical battle for a major army base and fuel storage and distribution point.

Activist Ahmed Kaddour said rebels were firing mortars and had attacked the base with an explosives-rigged vehicle.

The British-based Observatory, which uses a network of contacts in Syria to monitor the conflict, said a rebel commander was among several killed in Wednesday's fighting, which it said was among the heaviest there for months.

As violence has intensified in recent weeks, with Assad using his air power and artillery to contain rebel advances, daily death tolls have climbed. At least 190 were killed across the country on Tuesday alone, the Observatory said.

The head of Syria's military police changed sides and declared allegiance to the anti-Assad revolt.

"I am General Abdelaziz Jassim al-Shalal, head of the military police. I have defected because of the deviation of the army from its primary duty of protecting the country and its transformation into gangs of killing and destruction," the officer said in a video published on YouTube.

A Syrian security source confirmed the defection, but said Shalal was near retirement and had only defected to "play hero".

Syrian Interior Minister Mohammed Ibrahim al-Shaar left Lebanon for Damascus after being treated in Beirut for wounds sustained in a rebel bomb attack this month.

(Additional reporting by Laila Bassam; Writing by Alistair Lyon)

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Low-cost carriers to continue to drive growth in aviation industry: analysts

SINGAPORE : Low-cost carriers are driving growth in the aviation industry this year, accounting for a billion dollar increase in the profits forecast for airlines in 2012.

And Singapore Airlines (SIA) has latched on to the trend with its newly-minted low-cost carrier Scoot, in a bid to remain competitive.

Low-cost carriers have continued to enjoy healthy profits, with the number of economy passengers more than doubling that of premium travellers, according to the International Air Transport Association.

Besides Jetstar and AirAsia, SIA's Scoot started operations this year, with Cebu Pacific joining the ranks next year. .

Siva Govindasamy, Asia managing editor of Flightglobal, said: "From virtually nothing four years ago, we will have four Southeast Asian long-haul low-cost carriers next year and you are still in a market segment that is unproven.

"People do not know how much money you can make in this market segment. AirAsia X is likely to have its IPO (initial public offering) next year and we will see how the market reacts to that long-haul low-cost business model. "

Asia Pacific carriers account for more than half of the profits in the aviation industry this year, and low-cost carriers currently take up about 18 per cent of the market in Asia Pacific, compared to 24 percent globally.

Some airlines are expecting deliveries of more aircraft in 2013, with the likes of LionAir and AirAsia both adding more than 30 new planes to their current fleet. And experts have said this could lead to a price war in Indonesia and Malaysia, which could result in consolidation for smaller players.

But full service carriers aren't resting on their laurels either. Besides ordering new aircraft, SIA is also spending S$95 million to upgrade existing cabins.

But Singapore's national carrier is also repositioning its focus from the premium to value segments.

Subhranshu Sekhar Das, director (aerospace & defense practice), at Frost & Sullivan, said: "The only way to survive in this market is to consolidate and position their strengths.

"We have been seeing multiple carriers creating multiple brands under one umbrella, either SIA creating SilkAir, Scoot; Thai Air with Thai Smile and their partnership with other low-cost carriers; MAS with MASwings, Firefly..."

Besides multiple offshoots, SIA is also starting to get embroiled in a competition in Australia. SIA recently bought a 10 per cent stake in Virgin Australia and sold off its loss-making unit in Tiger Australia.

This came after a recent tie-up between Qantas and Emirates. But Qantas Airways looks set to defend its turf.

Leithen Francis, editor of Aviation Week, said: "Qantas is going to be focusing on the domestic market. I think Alan Joyce's point of view is to invest in those bits of the business that are profitable.

"Their international long-haul business is not profitable but what is very profitable is their domestic 737 operation, and also their regional turbo prop and regional jet operation. So I can see them investing more in new equipment for their operations in Australia."

But with the recent fall of India's Kingfisher Airlines, some analysts also predict that competition might soon move to India's aviation market instead.

Mr Francis said Etihad is in active negotiations to take a stake in Jet Airways and India is a very important market for Middle Eastern carriers.

- CNA/ms

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Need rules to handle flash mobs: Chidambaram

NEW DELHI: Faced with criticism over the way in which the Delhi Police lathicharged youngsters protesting the December 16 gang-rape, the government on Wednesday admitted it was not fully prepared to deal with flash mobs.

Finance Minister P Chidambaram told reporters: "Flash mob is a new phenomenon... sometimes they gather to dance and sing, but sometimes they can gather to protest also... we need to take note of it... I don't think we are fully prepared to deal with it... we need to devise SOPs (standard operating procedures)."

Chidambaram was responding to queries on the alleged failure of the police to handle angry young protesters, many of whom were women.

The police panicked over the protests and lathicharged the young people.

Later, authorities shut down Metro stations around central Delhi and barricaded many roads to keep protesters at bay, with little thought that such a move to close off several major roads in the heart of the city, where several government offices are located, would cause enormous inconvenience to thousands of daily commuters.

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

___

Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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