November Unemployment Falls to 7.7 Percent

The economy generated 146,000 new jobs in November and unemployment fell to 7.7 percent, better than economists expected, despite worries that superstorm Sandy and the looming fiscal cliff would dampen hiring.

There are still 12 million people unemployed in the country, but the Labor Department said Sandy did not "substantively impact" employment.

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics dialed back job gains for the previous two months. In October, the U.S. economy added 138,000 jobs, not the 171,000 reported before the election. The jobs added in September were also revised downward to 132,000 from 148,000.

Stephen Bronars, chief economist with Welch Consulting in Washington, D.C., said many economists believed Superstorm Sandy would have influenced Friday's jobs report after causing devastation especially in the Caribbean and U.S. Northeast. Many expected an addition of 90,000 jobs causing the unemployment rate to tick up slightly.

Though the job numbers seemed strong, Bronars still said the overall report was "mixed" as many people were giving up their job searches. He also said he expects the payroll number for November will also be revised downward in the next two months.

"We need to see a few more months of data to see the full impact of both Sandy and expiring unemployment insurance benefits," Bronars said.

Stan Honda/AFP/Getty Images

Businesses and residents in the tri-state region of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, which produce about one-eighth of U.S. GDP, experienced prolonged power outages and major infrastructure damage.

Bronars said, "Sandy hit the U.S. at a place where it inflicted close to the maximal possible economic damage from a storm that size."

New Jersey and New York were the hardest hit, with at least 120,000 jobs lost, at least temporarily, in those two states, some estimates showed. The Labor Department will release official regional and state unemployment estimates on Dec. 21.

Expiring unemployment insurance benefits for many jobless workers also affected the labor department's household survey as benefits have run out for hundreds of thousands of workers. A condition for receiving unemployment insurance benefits is an active job search.

"It is not surprising that some of the workers that have been out of work for a year and a half would give up job search, for a while, after their benefits ran out," Bronars said.

The labor force dropped by 350,000 in one month and employment fell by 122,000 according to the household survey.

"Those numbers are weak, even given Hurricane Sandy," Bronars said.

In addition, the employment to population ratio and the labor force participation rates fell.

On Wednesday, payroll provider ADP, reported that private companies added 118,000 jobs in November, down from 157,000 in October. However, ADP includes in its figures people as employed if they remain on payroll, whereas the Labor Department's includes workers as employed if they are paid.

Now that election season is over, employers and investors are surrounded by worries from another uncertainty, the fiscal cliff.

Read more: Eliminating Charitable Deduction Would Help Budget, Hurt Charities

Bronars said the November report will not have quite picked up effects of the looming fiscal cliff, as employers prepare for a mix of government spending cuts and tax increases after the end of the year.

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Yachting: Stamm takes lead in Vendee Globe

PARIS: Switzerland's Bernard Stamm has taken the lead for the first time in the solo, round-the-world Vendee Globe race ahead of France's Francois Gabart, Jean-Pierre Dick and Armel Le Cleac'h, organisers said on Friday.

Stamm took pole position in the southern Indian Ocean after Le Cleac'h, who had held the lead for much of the last 18 days, paid the price for trying to cut off an anticyclone near the Crozet "ice gate".

The Swiss skipper was the first to pass the virtual marker post on Thursday morning and the first to meet gentle winds - those slower than 10 knots.

At 0400 GMT on Friday, he was sailing at no more than 4.6 knots while Stamm (15.5 knots), Gabart (14.3 knots) and Dick (13.4 knots) were travelling nearly three times faster and more southward, buoyed by more sustained wind.

Le Cleac'h dropped to fourth overall and those in his wake chose to delay heading through the gentle wind zone, crossing their fingers that it will disappear when they head northward to pass Crozet.

Stamm's performance in his third Vendee Globe is remarkable given that his boat "Cheminees Poujoulat" is the most powerful of the fleet but also the most demanding physically.

The 49-year-old, who is based in the Brittany region of northwest France, has a glittering record in world sailing, having twice won the Velux 5 Oceans in 2002/3 and 2006/7 and is experienced in the Southern Ocean.

Standings at 0400 GMT:

1. Bernard Stamm (SUI/Cheminees Poujoulat) 16,641 nautical miles (19,150 miles, 30,819 kilometres) from the finish

2. Francois Gabart (FRA/Macif) at 11.5 miles

3. Jean-Pierre Dick (FRA/Virbac Paprec 3) at 59.5 miles

4. Armel Le Cleac'h (FRA/Banque Populaire) at 106.2 miles

5. Alex Thomson (GBR/Hugo Boss) at 145.3 miles

6. Mike Golding (GBR/Gamesa) at 653.7 miles

7. Dominique Wavre (SUI/Mirabaud) at 677.6 miles

8. Jean Le Cam (FRA/SynerCiel) at 678.1 miles

9. Javier Sanso (ESP/Acciona) at 1,295 miles

10. Arnaud Boissieres (FRA/Akena Verandas) at 1,515 miles

- AFP/de

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Cauvery water dispute tribunal award to be notified by December-end

NEW DELHI: After nearly six years, the final award of the Cauvery water dispute tribunal will be notified by the end of this month, states sharing the disputed Cauvery river waters were informed today.

At a meeting of the Cauvery monitoring committee (CMC) , secretary water resources D V Singh — who chairs the panel — told representatives of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala and Puducherry that steps "shall" be taken to notify the final award of the tribunal at the earliest, "but not later than the end of this month."

The meeting of the CMC was convened today to give an interim order on water sharing between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

Once a gazette notification is issued, institutions like the Cauvery River Authority (CRA) chaired by the Prime Minister and the CMC will cease to exist.

The Tribunal, comprising chairman Justice N P Singh and members N S Rao and Sudhir Narain, in a unanimous award in February, 2007 had determined the total availability of water in the Cauvery basin at 740 thousand million cubic (TMC) feet at the Lower Coleroon Anicut site.

The proceedings of the Tribunal, set up in June, 1990, went on for more than 16 years.

In, what was then described as a balancing act, the Tribunal gave Tamil Nadu 419 TMC of water(as against the demand of 562 TMC); Karnataka 270 TMC (as against its demand of 465 TMC); Kerala 30 TMC and Puducherry 7 TMC.

For environmental protection, it had reserved 10 TMC. The Tribunal's award will come into effect within 90 days of its notification by the Centre. As per law, the award comes into being after being notified by the Centre through its publication in a gazette.

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Celebrations planned as Wash. legalizes marijuana

SEATTLE (AP) — Legal marijuana possession becomes a reality under Washington state law on Thursday, and some people planned to celebrate the new law by breaking it.

Voters in Washington and Colorado last month made those the first states to decriminalize and regulate the recreational use of marijuana. Washington's law takes effect Thursday and allows adults to have up to an ounce of pot — but it bans public use of marijuana, which is punishable by a fine, just like drinking in public.

Nevertheless, some people planned to gather at 12:01 a.m. PST Thursday to smoke in public beneath Seattle's Space Needle. Others planned a midnight party outside the Seattle headquarters of Hempfest, the 21-year-old festival that attracts tens of thousands of pot fans every summer.

"This is a big day because all our lives we've been living under the iron curtain of prohibition," said Hempfest director Vivian McPeak. "The whole world sees that prohibition just took a body blow."

In another sweeping change for Washington, Gov. Chris Gregoire on Wednesday signed into law a measure that legalizes same-sex marriage. The state joins several others that allow gay and lesbian couples to wed.

That law also takes effect Thursday, when gay and lesbian couples can start picking up their wedding certificates and licenses at county auditors' offices. Those offices in King County, the state's largest and home to Seattle, and Thurston County, home to the state capital of Olympia, planned to open the earliest, at 12:01 a.m. Thursday, to start issuing marriage licenses. Because the state has a three-day waiting period, the earliest that weddings can take place is Sunday.

The Seattle Police Department provided this public marijuana use enforcement guidance to its officers via email Wednesday night: "Until further notice, officers shall not take any enforcement action — other than to issue a verbal warning — for a violation of Initiative 502."

Thanks to a 2003 law, marijuana enforcement remains the department's lowest priority. Even before I-502 passed on Nov. 6, police rarely busted people at Hempfest, despite widespread pot use, and the city attorney here doesn't prosecute people for having small amounts of marijuana.

Officers will be advising people to take their weed inside, police spokesman Jonah Spangenthal-Lee wrote on the SPD Blotter. "The police department believes that, under state law, you may responsibly get baked, order some pizzas and enjoy a 'Lord of the Rings' marathon in the privacy of your own home, if you want to."

Washington's new law decriminalizes possession of up to an ounce for those over 21, but for now selling marijuana remains illegal. I-502 gives the state a year to come up with a system of state-licensed growers, processors and retail stores, with the marijuana taxed 25 percent at each stage. Analysts have estimated that a legal pot market could bring Washington hundreds of millions of dollars a year in new tax revenue for schools, health care and basic government functions.

But marijuana remains illegal under federal law. That means federal agents can still arrest people for it, and it's banned from federal properties, including military bases and national parks.

The Justice Department has not said whether it will sue to try to block the regulatory schemes in Washington and Colorado from taking effect.

"The department's responsibility to enforce the Controlled Substances Act remains unchanged," said a statement issued Wednesday by the Seattle U.S. attorney's office. "Neither states nor the executive branch can nullify a statute passed by Congress" — a non-issue, since the measures passed in Washington and Colorado don't "nullify" federal law, which federal agents remain free to enforce.

The legal question is whether the establishment of a regulated marijuana market would "frustrate the purpose" of the federal pot prohibition, and many constitutional law scholars say it very likely would.

That leaves the political question of whether the administration wants to try to block the regulatory system, even though it would remain legal to possess up to an ounce of marijuana.

Colorado's measure, as far as decriminalizing possession goes, is set to take effect by Jan. 5. That state's regulatory scheme is due to be up and running by October 2013.

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Johnson can be reached at https://twitter.com/GeneAPseattle

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Cliffhanger: Can They Get to 'Yes'?

There are all sorts of theories floating around Washington about what kind of deficit reduction deal Democrats and Republicans eventually cut and when and how they get there.

And, nearing the end of a week when little progress appears to have been made, one thing is certain: Americans are worried about the consequences of going over the fiscal cliff.

According to a new Quinnipiac University poll out this morning, voters by a 47 to 23 percent margin said that the consequences of falling off the cliff, which include deep spending cuts and painful tax hikes, would be bad for the economy. And even more -- 53 percent -- said lawmakers' failure to avoid the cliff would be "bad for their personal financial situation" compared to just 13 percent who said it wouldn't.

What's more, President Obama and Democrats head into the final weeks before Christmas operating from a position of relative strength, at least when it comes to public opinion.

Read: What national "fiscal cliff" polls tells us (and what they don't)

Obama's post-election job approval rating stands at 53 percent, according to the latest Quinnipiac numbers (40 percent disapprove), and 53 percent of voters also said they trust the president and Democrats more than Republicans to work out a deal in the deficit negotiations.
But the question of how that happens is another matter altogether. Some Republicans say that the best option is to simply get President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner in a room together and wait for them to hammer out a deal mano-a-mano.

In an interview this week with Bloomberg News, President Obama disagreed.

"I don't think that the issue right now has to do with sitting in a room," he told Bloomberg's Julianna Goldman. "The issue right now that's relevant is the acknowledgment that if we're going to raise revenues that are sufficient to balance with the very tough cuts that we've already made and the further reforms in entitlements that I'm prepared to make, that we're going to have to see the rates on the top two percent go up. And we're not going to be able to get a deal without it."

Related: Can the mortgage deduction survive the fiscal cliff?

Nevertheless, House Republican Whip Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., called on the president to lead and predicted that we are entering a crucial phase of the talks -- despite the fact that some lawmakers are leaving town for a long weekend.

"If you want the answer to solving the fiscal cliff, the House has put an offer on the table and the president now has to engage," McCarthy said at a news conference yesterday. "I think the next 72 hours are critical. If he sits back and continues to play politics that will give you your answer to where we are going. This is an opportunity for this country to lead. This is an opportunity for the president to lead."

And Speaker Boehner assured that he would "be available at any moment to sit down" with the president "to get serious about solving this problem." (President Obama and Boehner spoke by telephone yesterday).

In the end, more Americans are rooting for compromise rather than collapse: By a 48 to 43 percent margin, voters surveyed in today's Quinnipiac poll predicted that President Obama and Congress would reach agreement to avoid the cliff by the end of the year.

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Military halts clashes as political crisis grips Egypt

CAIRO (Reuters) - Egypt's Republican Guard restored order around the presidential palace on Thursday after fierce overnight clashes killed seven people, but passions ran high in a struggle over the country's future.

The Islamist president, Mohamed Mursi, criticized by his opponents for his silence in the last few days, was due to address the nation later in the day, state television said.

Hundreds of his supporters who had camped out near the palace overnight withdrew before a mid-afternoon deadline set by the Republican Guard. Dozens of Mursi's foes remained, but were kept away by a barbed wire barricade guarded by tanks.

The military played a big role in removing President Hosni Mubarak during last year's popular revolt, taking over to manage a transitional period, but had stayed out of the latest crisis.

Mursi's Islamist partisans fought opposition protesters well into the early hours during dueling demonstrations over the president's decree on November 22 to expand his powers to help him push through a mostly Islamist-drafted constitution.

Officials said seven people had been killed and 350 wounded in the violence, for which each side blamed the other. Six of the dead were Mursi supporters, the Muslim Brotherhood said.

The street clashes reflected a deep political divide in the most populous Arab nation, where contrasting visions of Islamists and their liberal rivals have complicated a struggle to embed democracy after Mubarak's 30-year autocracy.

The United States, worried about the stability of an Arab partner which has a peace deal with Israel and which receives $1.3 billion a year in U.S. military aid, has urged dialogue.

The commander of the Republican Guard said deployment of tanks and troop carriers around the presidential palace was intended to separate the adversaries, not to repress them.

"The armed forces, and at the forefront of them the Republican Guard, will not be used as a tool to oppress the demonstrators," General Mohamed Zaki told the state news agency.

Hussein Abdel Ghani, spokesman of the opposition National Salvation Front, said more protests were planned, but not necessarily at the palace in Cairo's Heliopolis district.

"Our youth are leading us today and we decided to agree to whatever they want to do," he told Reuters.

UNITY APPEAL

Egypt plunged into renewed turmoil after Mursi issued his November 22 decree and an Islamist-dominated assembly hastily approved a new constitution to go to a referendum on December 15.

The Supreme Guide of the Brotherhood, to which Mursi belonged before he was narrowly elected president in June, appealed for unity. Divisions among Egyptians "only serve the nation's enemies", Mohamed Badie said in a statement.

Rival factions used rocks, petrol bombs and guns in the clashes around the presidential palace.

"We came here to support President Mursi and his decisions. He is the elected president of Egypt," said demonstrator Emad Abou Salem, 40. "He has legitimacy and nobody else does."

Opposition protester Ehab Nasser el-Din, 21, his head bandaged after being hit by a rock the day before, decried the Muslim Brotherhood's "grip on the country", which he said would only tighten if the new constitution is passed.

Another protester, Ahmed Abdel-Hakim, 23, accused the Brotherhood of "igniting the country in the name of religion".

Mursi's opponents accuse him of seeking to create a new "dictatorship". The president says his actions were necessary to prevent courts still full of judges appointed by Mubarak from derailing a constitution vital for Egypt's political transition.

Mursi has shown no sign of buckling under pressure from protesters, confident that the Islamists, who have dominated both elections since Mubarak was overthrown, can win the referendum and the parliamentary election to follow.

Mahmoud Hussein, the Brotherhood's secretary-general, said holding the plebiscite was the only way out of the crisis, dismissing the opposition as "remnants of the (Mubarak) regime, thugs and people working for foreign agendas".

As well as relying on his Brotherhood power base, Mursi may also tap into a popular yearning for stability and economic revival after almost two years of political turmoil.

The Egyptian pound sank on Thursday to its lowest level in eight years, after previously firming on hopes that a $4.8 billion IMF loan would stabilize the economy. The Egyptian stock market fell 4.4 percent after it opened.

Foreign exchange reserves fell by nearly $450 million to $15 billion in November, indicating that the Central Bank was still spending heavily to bolster the pound. The reserves stood at about $36 billion before the anti-Mubarak uprising.

(Additional reporting by Tom Perry and Yasmine Saleh; Writing by Alistair Lyon; Editing by Giles Elgood)

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OUE sets deadline for F&N takeover offer

SINGAPORE: A consortium led by property group Overseas Union Enterprise (OUE) has set a deadline for its takeover offer of conglomerate Fraser and Neave (F&N).

Its S$13.1 billion offer for F&N will close on 3 January.

OUE is controlled by Lippo Group, a major Indonesian conglomerate that was founded by tycoon Mochtar Riady. Mr Mochtar is father of OUE's executive chairman Stephen Riady.

The OUE-led consortium offered to buy out shares of F&N at S$9.08 a piece on 15 November.

It is backed by Japanese brewer Kirin Holdings, which holds a 14.8 per cent stake in F&N. Kirin is also F&N's second largest shareholder.

OUE's offer was 2.25 per cent higher than the S$8.88 per share offered by rival TCC Assets, which is controlled by Thai beverage tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi.

Through his entities TCC and Thai Beverage, he now owns almost a third of F&N.

TCC's S$8.7 billion bid for F&N will close on 11 December.

Analysts expect both sides to battle it out for F&N given the attractiveness of its property and soft drinks business.

They say TCC, which has extended the deadline on its offer twice, could ask for yet another extension next Tuesday before making their next move.

Liu Jinshu, deputy lead analyst at SIAS Research said: "TCC can't drag this out over a prolonged period, with the OUE bid announced last month, there is pressure for them to raise the stake.

"The premium offered by OUE's offer at S$9.08 a share is not high. TCC might not find it attractive after they have invested so much resources and effort in F&N. There is potential for TCC to rope in a partner and put in a higher bid for F&N."

F&N's share price closed at S$9.39 on Thursday, leading analysts to say that shareholders are holding out for a better offer and that a bidding war could emerge.

"We are seeing steady level being held at around the S$9.40-S$9.50 share mark on the exchange traded share. At the moment we are waiting to see who would move first in terms of putting in a better offer… I think we are likely to see both sides improve before we actually get to the end of any takeover," said Head of Premium Client Management at IG Markets Jason Hughes.

F&N is expected to appoint an independent financial advisor to review OUE's offer.

- CNA/jc

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BJP is bigger evil than Cong and JD(S): Yeddyurappa

BANGALORE: A week after snapping his four decade old association with BJP, former chief minister BS Yeddyurappa came down heavily on BJP, calling it 'a bigger evil' than Congress and JD(S).

"BJP is a bigger evil than Congress or JDS. So I have decided not to return to my previous party under any circumstance" Yeddyurappa said. However, he said he cannot forget the party as it has given him everything right from the post of president of a municipality to CM.

The 70-year-old former BJP strongman, who is set to formally launch his regional outfit Karnataka Janata Party in Haveri on Sunday said he has distanced himself from RSS ideology and is now wedded to the principles of Mahatma Gandhi, BR Ambedkar and Jayaprakash Narayan.

Yeddyurappa claimed that he has the support of 50 to 55 BJP MLAs and 12 MPs. He dared BJP leadership to take action against his supporters. In the same tenor, he also took on chief minister Jagadish Shettar. "I made a mistake in making Shettar CM. But I do not want to topple it and face allegations that I was responsible for it,'' he said.

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Longer tamoxifen use cuts breast cancer deaths

Breast cancer patients taking the drug tamoxifen can cut their chances of having the disease come back or kill them if they stay on the pills for 10 years instead of five years as doctors recommend now, a major study finds.

The results could change treatment, especially for younger women. The findings are a surprise because earlier research suggested that taking the hormone-blocking drug for longer than five years didn't help and might even be harmful.

In the new study, researchers found that women who took tamoxifen for 10 years lowered their risk of a recurrence by 25 percent and of dying of breast cancer by 29 percent compared to those who took the pills for just five years.

In absolute terms, continuing on tamoxifen kept three additional women out of every 100 from dying of breast cancer within five to 14 years from when their disease was diagnosed. When added to the benefit from the first five years of use, a decade of tamoxifen can cut breast cancer mortality in half during the second decade after diagnosis, researchers estimate.

Some women balk at taking a preventive drug for so long, but for those at high risk of a recurrence, "this will be a convincer that they should continue," said Dr. Peter Ravdin, director of the breast cancer program at the UT Health Science Center in San Antonio.

He reviewed results of the study, which was being presented Wednesday at a breast cancer conference in San Antonio and published by the British medical journal Lancet.

About 50,000 of the roughly 230,000 new cases of breast cancer in the United States each year occur in women before menopause. Most breast cancers are fueled by estrogen, and hormone blockers are known to cut the risk of recurrence in such cases.

Tamoxifen long was the top choice, but newer drugs called aromatase inhibitors — sold as Arimidex, Femara, Aromasin and in generic form — do the job with less risk of causing uterine cancer and other problems.

But the newer drugs don't work well before menopause. Even some women past menopause choose tamoxifen over the newer drugs, which cost more and have different side effects such as joint pain, bone loss and sexual problems.

The new study aimed to see whether over a very long time, longer treatment with tamoxifen could help.

Dr. Christina Davies of the University of Oxford in England and other researchers assigned 6,846 women who already had taken tamoxifen for five years to either stay on it or take dummy pills for another five years.

Researchers saw little difference in the groups five to nine years after diagnosis. But beyond that time, 15 percent of women who had stopped taking tamoxifen after five years had died of breast cancer versus 12 percent of those who took it for 10 years. Cancer had returned in 25 percent of women on the shorter treatment versus 21 percent of those treated longer.

Tamoxifen had some troubling side effects: Longer use nearly doubled the risk of endometrial cancer. But it rarely proved fatal, and there was no increased risk among premenopausal women in the study — the very group tamoxifen helps most.

"Overall the benefits of extended tamoxifen seemed to outweigh the risks substantially," Dr. Trevor Powles of the Cancer Centre London wrote in an editorial published with the study.

The study was sponsored by cancer research organizations in Britain and Europe, the United States Army, and AstraZeneca PLC, which makes Nolvadex, a brand of tamoxifen, which also is sold as a generic for 10 to 50 cents a day. Brand-name versions of the newer hormone blockers, aromatase inhibitors, are $300 or more per month, but generics are available for much less.

The results pose a quandary for breast cancer patients past menopause and those who become menopausal because of their treatment — the vast majority of cases. Previous studies found that starting on one of the newer hormone blockers led to fewer relapses than initial treatment with tamoxifen did.

Another study found that switching to one of the new drugs after five years of tamoxifen cut the risk of breast cancer recurrence nearly in half — more than what was seen in the new study of 10 years of tamoxifen.

"For postmenopausal women, the data still remain much stronger at this point for a switch to an aromatase inhibitor," said that study's leader, Dr. Paul Goss of Massachusetts General Hospital. He has been a paid speaker for a company that makes one of those drugs.

Women in his study have not been followed long enough to see whether switching cuts deaths from breast cancer, as 10 years of tamoxifen did. Results are expected in about a year.

The cancer conference is sponsored by the American Association for Cancer Research, Baylor College of Medicine and the UT Health Science Center.

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Marilynn Marchione can be followed at http://twitter.com/MMarchioneAP

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Majority Back Clinton for Presidential Bid in 2016

Kevin Lamarque/AP Photo

Carried by a new high in personal popularity and broad approval of her work as secretary of state, Hillary Clinton closes out her diplomatic career with majority support as a candidate for president in 2016.

Fifty-seven percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say they’d back a run by Clinton to succeed Barack Obama, vs. 37 percent opposed. That includes a broad gender gap – 66 percent support for Clinton among women, dropping to 49 percent among men.

See PDF with full results, charts and tables here.

Clinton is expected to step down soon from her leadership of the State Department, a position she accepted after narrowly losing the Democratic presidential nomination to Obama in 2008. She’s demurred on the prospect of another bid for the presidency.

Clinton’s fared well during her tenure at State; 68 percent approve of her work, second only to Colin Powell among the last five secretaries of state. (He managed a remarkable 85 percent approval in 2002 and 2003.) Similarly, two-thirds in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, see Clinton favorably overall, numerically a new high in her long public career as first lady, U.S. Senator, presidential candidate and top U.S. diplomat.

Clinton’s recovered from personal favorability as low as 44 percent in April 2008, during her presidential run; she also dropped that low in June 2003, when she was discussed as a possible candidate in the 2004 presidential race, and in June 1996, during the Whitewater controversy. Those dips underscore the potential risks should she climb back into the political fray.

In another sign of the challenges of a political candidacy, intensity of sentiment is better for Clinton personally, and as secretary of state, than it is for her as a candidate. Her “strongly” favorable rating and strong approval of her job performance outnumber her strong negatives, in both cases, by more than 2-1 margins. Strong support for her as a candidate also outweighs strong opposition, but much more narrowly, by 9 percentage points, 36 to 27 percent.

2016 and GROUPS – Politics are comparative, so actual support for Clinton as a candidate would depend more than anything on her opponents, in the Democratic primaries and general election alike. That said, having 57 percent willing to give you a look (55 percent among registered voters) is not a bad starting point – and the differences among groups are telling.

In addition to the gender gap there are sharp differences between age and racial groups, generally similar to Obama’s support patterns. Young adults, age 18 to 29, support Clinton for president by nearly 2-1; that falls to an even split among seniors. And while she gets 52 percent support among whites, that jumps to 70 percent among nonwhites, a strongly Democratic group.

Clinton does less well among nonwhites than did Obama, who won re-election with 80 percent of their support last month. That said, while majorities of white men and married men say they’d oppose a Clinton candidacy, she’s backed by more than six in 10 white women and married women – two groups that Obama lost.

Among other groups, support for Clinton in 2016 tops out at eight in 10 Democrats and liberals, vs. 23 and 24 percent of Republicans and strong conservatives, respectively. About two-thirds of moderates and six in 10 independents say they’d support a Clinton candidacy.

It’s hard to see Clinton winning 23 percent of Republicans in an actual campaign; no Democrat has come close to that mark in exit polls dating back 36 years. That’s another sign that, while currently her numbers are positive, actually running for president can be messier than it looks from a popular perch at Foggy Bottom.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cell phone Nov. 28-Dec. 2, 2012, among a random national sample of 1,020 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 4 points. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by SSRS/Social Science Research Solutions of Media, Pa.

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